The Capex Number Moved Because Buildings Slid, in a Bite

The biggest AI infrastructure number this year is a construction schedule. Microsoft is the first to admit it slipped.

• Five companies spent $556.2 billion on capital projects through three quarters of 2026, and the full year lands between $803 billion and $828 billion.
• The third quarter alone carried about $227 billion of spending, up roughly 20 percent from $188.5 billion in the prior quarter.
• Microsoft trimmed its full year outlook to $170 billion from $175 billion and tied the cut to delays in third party data center capacity, not weaker demand.
• The implied fourth quarter runs from $247 billion to $272 billion, and hyperscaler capex is projected above $1 trillion in 2027.
• Alphabet reported negative free cash flow of $9.1 billion, and neocloud shares fell when the two guidance misses landed.

Capex guidance is a delivery estimate, not a supply forecast. A late building keeps the rental market tight. Read the full analysis.