Europe Is Asking Whether VMware Can Be Replaced, in a Bite

The European Commission is building a market case against Broadcom’s VMware licensing changes, and the wording of its evidence request is the tell.

• Bloomberg reported on September 11 that the Commission sent European cloud providers a questionnaire dated July.
• Regulators asked how essential VMware is to those providers, whether rivals can replace it, and whether the new certification rules restrict sales unfairly.
• They also asked for estimates of the size of Europe’s public and private cloud markets. You size a market when you are weighing remedies.
• Under the revised partner program, some providers lose the right to sell VMware subscriptions after March 31. [VERIFY year]
• The Commission can order interim measures before any verdict, and fines can reach 10 percent of worldwide annual revenue.
• Broadcom says the CISPE complaint is hyperscaler funded and misrepresents the realities of the market.

Read the full analysis at the breakdown of the EU inquiry and the March deadline.

The economics behind this migration wave, including the three year cost model and why exits run long, are in the 2026 State of Enterprise Infrastructure report.